201 points by pigeons 11 hours ago | 12 comments
Strilanc 7 hours ago
This was exactly the premise of my sigbovik April Fool's paper in 2025 [1]: for small numbers, Shor's algorithm succeeds quickly when fed random samples. And when your circuit is too long (given the error rate of the quantum computer), the quantum computer imitates a random number generator. So it's trivial to "do the right thing" and succeed for the wrong reason. It's one of the many things that make small factoring/ecdlp cases bad benchmarks for progress in quantum computing.

I warned the project11 people that this would happen. That they'd be awarding the bitcoin to whoever best obfuscated that the quantum computer was not contributing (likely including the submitter fooling themselves). I guess they didn't take it to heart.

[1]: https://sigbovik.org/2025/proceedings.pdf#page=146

pigeons 11 hours ago
Project Eleven just awarded 1 BTC for "the largest quantum attack on ECC to date", a 17-bit elliptic curve key recovered on IBM Quantum hardware. Yuval Adam replaced the quantum computer with /dev/urandom. It still recovers the key.
9 hours ago
logicallee 9 hours ago
but does the quantum hardware do it any faster?
petterroea 8 hours ago
> The author's own CLI recovers every reported private key at statistically indistinguishable rates from the IBM hardware runs.
xienze 48 minutes ago
I think that means success rate, not speed.
dogma1138 9 hours ago
Just to point it out this isn’t a jab at QC but rather a jab at project 11 and possibly the submission author, basically they failed to validate the submission properly and the code proves that the solution is classical.

Recovering a 17bit ecc key isn’t a challenge for current classical computers via brute force.

aaron695 9 hours ago
[dead]
logicallee 9 hours ago
if the solution is faster than random it could still be a real solution on a quantum computer.
PunchyHamster 3 hours ago
well, it's slower than random
amoshebb 7 hours ago
“recovers every reported private key at statistically indistinguishable rates from the IBM hardware runs.”
jjcm 7 hours ago
Truly an unfortunate thumbnail crop for this story: https://image.non.io/b3f69546-aeb3-48c3-a76d-723f29b28f48.we...
NooneAtAll3 2 hours ago
> contains the code and submission

perfection

functionmouse 33 minutes ago
yucky
NetOpWibby 6 hours ago
This is fantastic
int32_64 17 minutes ago
"quantum grifting" has hit the cryptocurrency space brutally.

Scammers can take an old defunct coin or create a new one, buy up/create supply, strap ML-DSA on to it, and pump their shitcoin claiming it's quantum safe, then they can unload.

Eventually low information retail will get wise to this, I honestly don't know who this even works on right now.

jMyles 19 minutes ago
Pasting my comment from the other article here - curious to understand the degree to which I'm understanding this.

----

The article itself is maddeningly vague on exactly what happened here.

At first blush, it looks like the quantum computer was just used to generate random noise? Which was then checked to see if it was the private key? Surely that can't be.

The github README [0] is quite extensive, and I'm not able to parse the particulars of all the sections myself without more research. One thing that caught my eye: "The key insight is that Shor's post-processing is robust to noise in a way that raw bitstring analysis is not."

"This result sits between the classical noise floor and the theoretical quantum advantage regime. At larger curve sizes where n >> shots, the noise baseline drops below 1% and any successful key recovery becomes strong evidence of quantum computation."

So... is one of the main assertions here simply that quantum noise fed into Shor's algorithm results in requiring meaningfully fewer "shots" (this is the word used in the README) to find the secret?

Someone help me understand all this. Unless I'm missing something big, I'm not sure I'm ready to call this an advancement toward Q-Day in any real-world sense.

0: https://github.com/GiancarloLelli/quantum

NooneAtAll3 2 hours ago
does the number of calls to "QM" match between the implementations?
dlcarrier 8 hours ago
A 17 bit key has 131072 possibilities, which is trivially easy to brute force. Defeating it with a quantum computer is still very much a physics demonstration, and not at all attempting to be a useful computing task.
tsimionescu 7 hours ago
The point here is that the quantum computer component of the original solution is not doing anything - that the algorithm being run overall is not actually a quantum algorithm, but a classical probabilistic algorithm.

If the quantum computer were a key component of the solution, replacing it with an RNG would have either no longer yielded the right result, or at least would have taken longer to converge to the right result. Instead, the author shows that it runs exactly the same, proving all of the relevant logic was in the classical side and the QC was only contributing noise.

arcfour 7 hours ago
Perhaps I'm ignorant, but isn't the idea that you can do it faster than brute force?

If the results are statistically identical to guessing then it seems like you've just built a Rube Goldberg contraption.

nkrisc 3 hours ago
But if the QC’s contribution is indistinguishable from that of a random number generator, then what is being demonstrated?
iberator 8 hours ago
Quantum computing is 3 decades old scam. Not even Google was able to prove that their quantum computer works LOL.

weakened algorithms to the extreme (17 bits in 2026 LOL).

wasting_time 7 hours ago
Didn't Google recently report a verifiable quantum advantage?

https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/qu...

somenameforme 33 minutes ago
You know you're blowing your reputation when such claims are met by scientific articles with the headline, "Google claims 'quantum advantage' again." [1]

[1] - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03300-4

josefx 6 hours ago
Dont they report an advantage based on simulating quantum effects every other year? I was promissed a quick way to decrypt my old harddrives decades ago, can we have that at some point before the sun burns out?
mistercow 2 hours ago
Are your old hard drives encrypted using asymmetric cryptography? If not, I'm not sure who made you that promise.
IshKebab 2 hours ago
The funny thing is we already have PQC so even if quantum computing works, it will be immediately irrelevant.

At least for breaking crypto, which seems to be its headline feature. Maybe there are other useful things it can do?

somenameforme 29 minutes ago
I expect they're just banking on getting their investment back with some fat returns by licensing it to the NSA to decrypt their hoovered up encrypted coms, with their data storage now reaching up to the yottabyte level. That's a lotta byte.
PunchyHamster 3 hours ago
On what? They can't run it against anything real
woohin 1 hour ago
[dead]
oncallthrow 2 hours ago
Shame that this report is LLM-generated slop.
neuroelectron 5 hours ago
Imagine investing trillions of dollars on slightly worse random numbers. I suppose it's a better use of money than DEI hiring and political correctness initiatives. At least random numbers don't destroy society systematically.